Model Simulations
Stopped
Latest Model
We are sorry to announce that COVIDESTIM is shutting down due to the end of our funding period and data source availability. The models are no longer updated, however all our project files are open source. You can find more information on the project below.
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Rt · Effective Reproduction Number

Rt is the average number of people who will become infected by a person infected at time t. If it’s above 1.0, COVID-19 cases will increase in the near future. If it’s below 1.0, COVID-19 cases will decrease in the near future.

Infections per capita

Infections per capita is our best estimate of how many individuals get infected every day - including infections which are never diagnosed through testing and never manifest in testing data. This estimate is presented as infections, per 100,000 individuals, per day.

Cumulative infections

Our best estimate of the number of infections that have occurred in this geography since the start of the pandemic on a per-capita basis. Displayed as infections per 100,000 individuals. Uncertainty pre-December 2021 is not represented.